A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
